Donald and the 'Madman Theory'
Trump could have leveraged his volatility and unpredictability to wind down bloody global conflicts. But he is already blowing that chance
If there was a lantern of hope glimmering through the pall of loathing and fear that hangs over a great swath of the populace, it was the possibility that the President-elect would use his mercurial nature to prod Israel to halt its destruction of Gaza and southern Lebanon and to push Ukraine and Russia toward a deal.
In his victory speech on Election Night, Donald Trump described his brand of pacifism. “We want a strong and powerful military and ideally, we don't have to use it. You know, we had no wars [for] four years. We had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS, we defeated ISIS in record time. …They said, 'He will start a war.' I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.”
Whatever else can be said about Trump, he has never been a neo-con warmonger. He voiced tepid-at-best support for the invasion of Iraq in a 2003 interview with Howard Stern and he’s right — apart from letting Defense Secretary James Mattis take out ISIS in his first term, no wars were started on his watch.
In an October interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, Trump implicitly suggested that he could use his unnerving unpredictability on the world stage to avoid conflict and maybe even help bring some peace to a world ablaze with brutal, bloody conflicts.
Asked: “Would you use military force against a blockade of Taiwan?”
“I wouldn’t have to, because [Chinese President Xi] respects me and he knows I’m fucking crazy,” Trump answered.
The madman approach has been used before. When Henry Kissinger was negotiating with the North Vietnamese, Nixon urged him to emphasize the hairpin unpredictability of his boss. And Ronald Reagan’s toppling of the Soviets’ “evil empire” was rooted in Russian fear that he was a loose canon of the Clint Eastwood “go-ahead-make-my-day’ variety.
For the Iranians, Russians, North Koreans, Chinese, and others watching Trump’s every move since November 5, Trump has been making a plausible display of batshit behavior by:
Nominating a TV host who was a major in the Minnesota National Guard to head the Defense Department, with 2.9 million employees — including 1.4 million active-duty troops — and a $841 billion budget. That would be Pete Hegseth (whose path forward may be in trouble over some questionable tats and a sexual assault allegation).
Handing the sensitive post of director of national intelligence to a failed politician who has voiced support of Putin, has no national security experience, and has close ties to a cult-like group that believes God speaks through someone named Chris Butler. That would be Tulsi Gabbard.
Nominating for Attorney General a manic MAGA disciple who on Wednesday quit Congress hoping to keep secret the findings of a report by the House Ethics Committee investigating his alleged sex trafficking of a 17-year-old girl. That would be Matt Goetz
With a clean sweep of the Presidency and both houses of Congress — plus the Supreme Court in his pocket — Trump will be far more powerful and fearsome to the global strongmen he wants to impress. But the crazy show that has surprised and confounded even Republicans may, in fact, undermine his mad-dog cred.
Both Hegseth and Gabbard, who reached the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in the Army Reserve, are critics of the military in which they served. Hegseth, wants to push out generals and dramatically upend any policies that reek of “wokeism.” His priorities promise a Pentagon in turmoil and therefore a weakened national defense.
A former Democratic Representative from Hawaii who endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016 and ran for the presidential nomination in 2020, Gabbard is a foe of military intervention and co-introduced a House bill to pardon Edward Snowden, who released thousands of classified documents. She has a record of pro-Russia remarks justifying the invasion of Ukraine and denouncing U.S. support for Kyiv. She has also has defended the Syrian butcher Bashar al-Assad. Gabbard is at best a badly compromised Kremlin apologist — hardly a scary spymaster like James Jesus Angleton or Yuri Andropov, or…Vladimir Putin.
Even for the most Israel-pleasing President ever, it’s going to be hard for Trump to bend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his will and end the bombardment of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon given the ferociously pro-Jerusalem chorus behind him.
So far, his nominees include “Israel First-er” Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN; Mike Huckabee, who has said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian,” as ambassador to Israel; and Hegseth, who in 2018 dismissed the long-held U.S. policy of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Maybe most importantly, Trump has to answer to his Israel-born, $100 million campaign donor Miriam Adelson. That all puts Netanyahu in the catbird seat.
As far as the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin knows Trump too well to be cowed into concessions, especially if Hegseth is busy turning the military upside down and Gabbard is the spy who has never been in the cold.
Zelensky has more to worry about than Vladie.
China is no doubt concerned about the massive import tariffs Trump wants to impose, but less frightened of the U.S. coming to the aid of Taiwan or challenging Beijing’s methodical takeover of the South China Sea — especially now that President Xi’s new best friend Putin is whispering in his ear about the paper tiger in Washington.
Trump may truly want to add peacemaker to his legacy, but his Sword of Damocles looks more like a butter knife.
The Odious & The Awful
On the Border of a Bruising Crackdown
If Trump’s outward-facing nominees Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard look as though they would be dramatically out of their depth in dealing with foreign foes, the trio he has charged with mounting a domestic war on illegal immigration should have migrants shaking in their well-worn shoes.
While there is no question that the borders of the country should be secured, with entry subject to laws on the books, the ascendance of uber hard-liners suggests the return of the most loathsome immigration policies of the first Trump Administration, with some even more onerous ideas in the offing.
So make sure you know where your birth certificate, Social Security card, and honorable discharge (if you served in the military) are, because these three characters — each frightening in their own way — will be checking papers.
Stephen Miller, new Deputy White House Chief of Staff and immigration whisperer. He was called out by his own uncle in 2018, who noted that Miller’s Jewish forbears escaped persecution by immigrating to America.
”Stephen’s is not the only family with a chain immigration story in the Trump administration,” wrote Dr. David Glosser, a retired neuropsychologist in Politico Magazine. “Trump’s grandfather is reported to have been a German migrant on the run from military conscription to a new life in the United States, and his mother fled the poverty of rural Scotland for the economic possibilities of New York City.”Miller is rabidly anti-immigrant. In a speech at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally just before the election, he shouted: “America is for Americans and Americans only.” Miller is said to be the architect of Trump’s family-separation policy in Trump’s first term and and is opposed to children born in the U.S. being given automatic citizenship.
Tom Homan, slated to be “border czar, is a former cop and Border Agent who served as acting director of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) under Trump. He will be the enforcer of mass deportations.
Speaking at the Republican National Convention, Homan said: “I got a message for all those illegal immigrants that Joe Biden released into our country in violation of federal law, you better start packing — now!”Homan, a contributor to the Heritage Foundation’s controversial Project 2025, didn’t mention the Biden Administration’s tough bipartisan bill to combat illegal immigration that Trump ordered his congressional minions to scuttle so migrants would remain a campaign issue.
In a 60 Minutes interview in October, Cecilia Vega asked Homan: “Is there a way to carry out mass deportation without separating families?”“Of course there is,” Homan said. “Families can be deported together.”
Presumably, “families” would include naturalized or U.S.-born citizens.
Kristi Noem, nominated to Secretary of Homeland Security, is the current governor of South Dakota. She was at one point said to be under consideration to be Trump’s running mate before she revealed in a memoir that she had shot her family dog because it was “un-trainable.”
Noem has no experience in border security or enforcement, though she did dispatch South Dakota National Guard troops to Texas to assist Governor Gregg Abbot’s efforts to repel migrants. Politico wrote that while ICE and CBP (Customs and Border Protection) might be nominally under her jurisdiction, immigration policy will be controlled by the White House.
In other words, Noem will be a political rubber stamp with little control over the expected excesses of Miller and Homan.
Oddities & Ends
Boxing Under the Influence
Last night in a highly promoted live event on Netflix, YouTuber and Influencer Jake Paul, 27, dispatched the once-fierce pit bull of boxing Mike Tyson, 58, in eight rounds (down from regulation ten) that lasted only two minutes (down from regulation three) each.
Paul had a record of 10-1 against opponents not considered formidable, but he was deft on his feet and showed a mean left hook. By contrast, Tyson had a record of 50-6 going into the match and mostly showed his age. He barely attempted to bob and weave on his Joe Biden legs.
Impressively, however, Tyson went the distance and stayed upright, though 14-ounce gloves (up from regulation 10 ounces) makes it tough to land a knockout punch. What was maybe more impressive was that a reported 120 million global fans streamed the free fight. While the bout was roundly criticized as a cruel joke, it still signaled that a social media phenom might help revive the “sweet science.”
What wasn’t impressive was the overwhelmed Netflix stream, which for some took forever to appear on screens and then intermittently sputtered and froze like the former champ.